A recent survey conducted by the Japan Agricultural Corporations Association has revealed growing concern among large-scale rice farmers regarding the future of rice pricing. According to the results, 41.0 per cent of respondents expect the retail price of rice harvested in 2026 to be lower than that of the 2025 crop, while only 22.9 per cent anticipate higher prices. In contrast, 72.3 per cent expect prices for 2025 rice to surpass those of the 2024 harvest.
The online survey was carried out between 12 and 19 May, receiving feedback from 188 members of the association. The findings come at a time when rice prices in Japan have surged to record levels, leading the government to intervene by releasing stockpiled rice to the market in an effort to stabilise consumer prices. Retailers began selling this rice to consumers on Saturday for the first time.
At a press conference, Association Chairman Kazushi Saito voiced concerns over the sustainability of current price levels, warning that a potential price collapse in 2026 could significantly impact farm management. He attributed the risk to increased domestic production and the availability of cheaper imported rice.
Regarding the 2024 crop, 53.7 per cent of farmers stated that current prices are excessively high. In terms of producer prices, the most frequently reported range was between ¥20,001 and ¥25,000 per 60 kilograms, as cited by 45.2 per cent of respondents. When compared to 2023 prices, the largest segment—38.3 per cent—indicated that current prices have risen by ¥5,001 to ¥10,000, while 5.0 per cent reported an increase of ¥15,001 to ¥20,000.
Farmers also highlighted a number of operational challenges, including elevated costs for construction and machinery, labour shortages, and the looming threat of a price downturn driven by overproduction.
-Japan Times
