Author name: admin

News

Potential US gains draw Asia investors

SINGAPORE: Investors across Asia have ramped up bets on potential winners from Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House, fuelling big jumps in some popular stocks. The Republican candidate’s election victory led to rallies in the shares of South Korean shipbuilders, Indian electronics manufacturers, Australian steel suppliers and even Vietnamese industrial parks. The common thread: a belief that these companies can benefit from tougher restrictions on global trade, which will squeeze supply chains but create opportunities for nimble firms. The share price jumps underscored how some investors in the region are taking a micro approach to investing ahead of Trump’s second term, a contrast to the sweeping macro plays that drove ‘Trump trades’ immediately after the election. “Some emerging markets investors have started looking beyond the top down approach to the Trump trade with specific pockets of opportunity for alpha generation,” said Singapore Aletheia Capital analyst Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, adding that “sector-focused narratives have started forming.” South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co’s shares have surged 30% over the past two days, while its peers HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co and Samsung Heavy Industries Co also jumped. The buying spree was helped by a phone call between Trump and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, during which the president-elect expressed hopes for close cooperation with the Asian nation. Hanwha Ocean is buying a former Navy shipyard in Philadelphia and recently secured Korea’s first ever contract to overhaul a US naval vessel, both factors that may reassure investors worried about the risk of Trump’s ‘America First’ approach. Shares of Sydney-listed BlueScope Steel Ltd rallied alongside US domestic steelmakers, jumping more than 5% two days a row. The company gets almost half of its revenue from North America, largely through its Ohio-based arm North Star headquartered in Delta, putting it on the right side of possible tariffs that may hurt the Australian economy. Indian electronics manufacturers Dixon Technologies India Ltd, Kaynes Technology India Ltd and Syrma SGS Technology Ltd closed more than 8.5% higher last Wednesday, as local investors reacted to the likelihood of a Trump win. Economists think India will get a boost from a growing “China Plus One” strategy, where global companies try to diversify supply chains away from China without abandoning it entirely. “Tariff and fiscal risks are back on the table,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “This could work to the advantage of China Plus One beneficiaries, particularly India, with its significant structural strengths in demographics and infrastructure spending.” Companies adopting the “China Plus One” strategy will also invest more in South-East Asia, Maybank Kim Eng Securities analyst Chak Reungsinpinya wrote in a note dated Nov 6. The bets on these stocks were not all one-way. Some of the big gainers fell last Friday, and investors are still wary of the uncertainty that will greet them when Trump returns to the White House. But the moves point to a sense among investors in Asia that, despite the gloom about the impact of trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, there are profits on the table for active stock pickers. “Across Asia, industries from defence to electronics are benefiting from the US pivot away from China,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X ETFs. “To me this isn’t just trade redirection – its like a sectoral reshuffle.” — Bloomberg

Property

Gen Starz Residences: Heritage & Modernity on Old Klang Road

Old Klang Road is one of Kuala Lumpur’s most vibrant and historic thoroughfares. It has long been a dynamic hub of energy, where the established rich texture of the community is infused with a new zeal for life. This evolution ensures continuity in culture, commerce, and convenience, enhancing the area’s livability and marking the introduction of Gen Starz Residences as a significant addition to Old Klang Road’s vibrant community. The enduring vibrancy of the neighbourhood makes it the perfect bustling backdrop for Majestic Gen to introduce Gen Starz Residences, the newest addition to reinvigorate urban living on Old Klang Road, in the heart of Klang Valley. This innovative development will redefine modern living while honouring the neighbourhood’s rich legacy. Occupying a niche pocket in the dynamic Old Klang Road corridor, Gen Starz Residences is a freehold, low-density development offering 360 handsomely designed serviced apartments. With a gross development value (GDV) of RM 272 million, this project serves as the headlining feather in the cap of Majestic Gen’s burgeoning portfolio and a significant milestone that is strategised to cater for the growing demand for an infusion of sophisticated urban living propositions that assimilates well into existing mature neighbourhoods. Gen Starz Residences draws inspiration from the close-knit community of Old Klang Road. The overarching design captures the spirit of the people and the character of the neighbourhood, blending contemporary living with the nostalgic charm of this beloved area. Building upon this rich local heritage, the Chroma-Vista theme celebrates a vibrant and enriching lifestyle, merging bold colours with stunning vistas to create a holistic development that radiates energy and warmth from every corner. “Gen Starz Residences reflects our vision of creating spaces where every resident is allowed to thrive and shine on their own accord, ” said Dato’ Hoo Kim See, CEO of Majestic Gen. “The shining ‘Star’ represents a recurring starring role in a great locale with a supporting cast of a lively, modern lifestyle that is in line with our tagline of ‘Sparkles every Hour’ that enhances the appeal of a home with a cohesive charm, no matter the time of day.” This is evident in the building, which is intentionally composed of linear and yet free-flowing forms that mirror the diverse connections made in the greater community, symbolising the journey of individuals coming together to foster meaningful relationships. The residence is designed to cater towards a youthful and creative congregation, promoting new entrepreneurial ventures, holistic education for the new generation, and cultural exchange, all within a space that seamlessly integrates urban convenience with diverse requirements and needs. MEASURED FIT At Gen Starz Residences, flexibility and modularity meet modern living with three thoughtfully designed layout options, each crafted to fit diverse lifestyles and increasingly preferred work-from-home preferences. For instance, Type A, with its compact 650 sq ft layout, features two rooms and one bath, making it an ideal choice for young professionals (or couples) seeking a stylish yet efficient space. For those who desire a bit more room, Type B offers a generous 756 sq ft space, complete with two rooms and two baths, providing extra comfort and much-needed privacy. For families and individuals who value spacious living, Type C is the perfect solution. Its large 874 sq ft layout includes three rooms and two cosy baths, offering more than ample space for growth and activities. “What sets Gen Starz Residences apart from other residences is our innovative use of flexible walls,” added Hoo. “These manoeuvrable walls allow residents to customise and transform their living spaces as their familial needs evolve. Whether you wish to modify the layout temporarily for an open-concept space for gatherings or create more permanent private areas with partitions, our adaptable walls allow you to shape your home exactly as you envisioned it, without too much hassle, thus reflecting and reinventing your own unique lifestyle as you wish.” NATURAL DESIGN It is with great pride that Gen Starz Residences has attained a Provisional GreenRE rating in the residential category, solidifying Majestic Gen’s commitment to eco-friendly, sustainable living solutions and applications. A key feature is its commitment to renewable energy, with 30% of the roof space dedicated to photovoltaic solar panels. Additionally, energy-efficient air conditioning, fans, and roof insulation have been carefully selected to meet strict energy-saving requirements. This approach, combined with enhanced ventilation, ensures optimal air quality in both individual units and common areas, including wet spaces frequently used by residents. A strong indicator of its green focus, Gen Starz Residences offers residents abundant natural light and expansive green spaces. Open lawns and the tranquil Little Forest provide a serene living environment for everyone to enjoy. Coupled with energy-efficient lifts and water-saving fixtures, such as flushing cisterns, these features further enhance the development’s sustainability focus. The use of green construction materials and responsible waste management underscores Majestic Gen’s dedication to reducing environmental impact while ensuring deliverables are met, and that residents can move into their units on schedule. The Modern Contemporary landscape concept at Gen Starz Residences focuses on creating open and functional spaces with clean lines and minimalist designs, resulting in a spacious and uncluttered environment. Elegant water features and sculptural elements enhance the visual appeal of this serene oasis, complementing the overall modern aesthetic while incorporating natural materials and contrasting colours. This thoughtful approach extends to the planned greenery, which is manicured to be symmetrical yet distinctive, further accentuating the landscape and providing a sense of proportion and balance. The result is an outdoor space that is both elegant and inviting, offering residents a harmonious retreat amidst the urban environment. EVERYDAY EXTRAORDINARY Gen Starz Residences boasts an impressive array of amenities across three levels that are meant to elevate the living experience to new heights. The podium deck offers a panoramic 360° Outdoor Gym, where residents can enjoy a workout with stunning city views at their beck and call, before they take a dip in the Infinity Swimming Pool for a healthy dose of recuperation and relaxation. For social gatherings, the Multipurpose Hall and

News

Visa Unveils New Products at Singapore Fintech Festival 2024

PHNOM PENH: The way people pay and get paid has changed more in the past five years than in the last 50. Consumers have evolved, adapting to new payment experiences – from the advent of embedded, digital commerce to the rapid growth of different payment methods. Visa is announcing a suite of new products and services that will be available in Asia Pacific. These solutions are set to ­reinvent the card and address the future needs of businesses, merchants and consumers, and the financial institutions that serve them. “The payments landscape is changing rapidly, and it is impacting the interactions between consumers and businesses,” said TR Ramachandran, Head of Products and Solutions, Asia Pacific, Visa. “For Visa, this is an opportunity to deliver innovations that enhance payment experiences across Asia Pacific with greater flexibility, security, and convenience. Visa is committed to meeting the evolving demands of consumers and merchants, ensuring seamless and secure payments.” Visa is showcasing its new products and solutions at Singapore Fintech Festival Hall 2, Booth 2E17. These innovations, which will begin to roll out across Asia Pacific, include: Visa Flexible Credential Visa Flexible Credential allows a single card product to toggle between payment methods. Consumers can easily set parameters or choose whether they use debit, credit, “pay-in-four” with instalments or even pay using rewards points all via the same, single Visa credential. Since debuting the Olive card in Japan with Sumitomo Mitsui Card Company (SMCC)[1] just over a year ago, there are now over three million SMCC cardholders taking advantage of the Visa Flexible Credential. The solution is currently available in Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Visa’s new wallet payment experience Utilising its network expertise, Visa will connect different types of payments, giving consumers more ways to pay, regardless of form factor, whether online or offline and at point-of-sale terminals. Soon, consumers will be able to use their everyday wallets to scan and pay at any merchant that accepts Visa via scanning enabled QR codes at merchants outside of their domestic markets. Visa is working with QR providers, enabling these QR merchant networks to accept Visa payments. Visa is also working with digital wallet partners across the region, to enable users of these wallets to scan these QR codes and pay seamlessly and securely when they travel abroad. Visa Payment Passkey Built on the latest Fast Identity Online (FIDO) standards, the Visa Payment Passkey enables a consumer to verify and authenticate their identity, and authorise online payments, with a quick scan of their biometrics like their face or fingerprint using authentication tools made available on their devices. When shopping online, Visa passkeys replace the need for passwords or one-time codes, enabling more streamlined and secure transactions. Click to Pay Click to Pay enables consumers to complete online transactions within a few clicks, powering a more seamless and secure checkout experience at scale. Consumers will simply need their registered email, phone number or Visa Payment Passkey to check-out online. Data Tokens Using its tokenisation infrastructure, Visa will now offer Visa data tokens, a new way for people to control their data and receive better shopping experiences, powered by AI. This token can be used by the merchant’s AI models to deliver real-time recommendations. Additionally, Visa ensures that consumers can track and manage shared data through their mobile banking app. Visa Protect for Account-to-Account (A2A) Payments Visa Protect for Account-to-Account Payments (Visa Protect for A2A) is designed to detect and reduce fraud across immediate account-to-account payments, including P2P digital wallets and QR code payments. Built specifically as a fraud prevention solution for real-time payments,[2] this AI-powered service analyses up to 500 unique risk factors in real-time, providing financial institutions with an immediate risk score to stop fraudulent transactions before they happen.

Investment & Market Trends

Arla Foods and Volac Joint Statement on Acquisition Decision

TAIPEI: The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority has approved Arla Foods Ingredients‘ acquisition of Volac‘s Whey Nutrition business. The regulator’s go-ahead follows an evaluation that took place after the two companies signed an acquisition agreement on April 18th 2024. Commenting on the announcement, Luis Cubel, Group Vice President and Managing Director of Arla Foods Ingredients, said: “This is a very welcome decision at a time when demand for high-quality whey ingredients is growing. It means we’re a step closer to a significant acquisition that would consolidate our position as a leader in the whey nutrition space. We will now move forward with the formal process necessary to make Volac’s Whey Nutrition business part of Arla Foods Ingredients. Once that is complete, we will be able to comment further on the many advantages of bringing together these two major manufacturers of whey ingredients – not just for both companies, but also for our customers and the industry as a whole.” Commenting on behalf of the Neville family, James Neville, joint owner of Volac, said: “We were always confident that Arla Foods Ingredients had the necessary expertise and values to take our Whey Nutrition business to the next level, and we are delighted to have reached this important step in the acquisition process. It’s great news for Volac Whey Nutrition, and for the whey ingredients sector, that these two innovative companies have been allowed to join forces.

News

China’s exports soar as trade war with West looms

BEIJING: China’s outbound shipments grew at the fastest pace in over two years in October as manufacturers rushed inventory to major export markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the United States and the European Union, with the threat of a broader trade war looming. With Donald Trump being elected as the next US president, his pre-election pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China’s biggest export market. Outbound shipments from the world’s second-largest economy grew 12.7% year-on-year last month, customs data showed yesterday, blowing past a forecast 5.2% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2.4% rise in September. Imports fell 2.3%, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5%. “We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.” Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan pointed to cooling global demand, while German manufacturers have also reported they are struggling to find buyers overseas, leading analysts to conclude producers are slashing prices to find buyers or simply moving stocks out of China. But exporters also had help from a positive turn in the weather, enabling them to send out delayed orders. Typhoon Bebinca brought Shanghai to a standstill for one day in September, causing severe disruption to one of China’s busiest ports. In the eastern province of Jiangsu a violent tornado killed at least 10 people and several other regions suffered heavy rain and strong winds, disrupting production. — Reuters

Investment & Market Trends

VENTENY Reports 86% Revenue Growth in Q3 2024

JAKARTA: PT VENTENY Fortuna International Tbk (VTNY) announced consolidated revenue of IDR 186 billion as of September 30, 2024, representing an 86% increase year-on-year. This growth was driven by its diverse business lines, with contributions as follows: B2B Financial Services: 40% or IDR 74.7 billion B2B2E VENTENY Employee Super App: 32% or IDR 58.2 billion Technology Development: 28% or IDR 52.7 billion As of September 30, 2024, the Company achieved an EBITDA of IDR 13.7 billion and reported a net profit of IDR 2.6 billion. Jun Waide, Founder and Group CEO of VENTENY, commented on the company’s performance, stating, “Our results demonstrate the increasing resilience of our portfolio. The ecosystem we’ve built, particularly the B2B2E Employee Super App, has seen significant growth. We are confident that our technology solutions will drive a strong close to 2024.” Strategic Investments and Expansion Efforts in 2024 In 2024, VENTENY focused on bolstering its digital infrastructure, enhancing its organizational structure, forging regional partnerships, and expanding its asset base. These initiatives aim to support VENTENY’s next phase of business growth. Waide added, “Since our start in Indonesia in 2019, we’ve grown exponentially. Our focus now is on building a strong foundation to sustain this momentum and achieve our broader vision across Southeast Asia.” B2B Financial Services and Funding Initiatives VENTENY’s B2B Financial Services, the company’s largest revenue stream, saw a 26% revenue increase year-on-year. By September 2024, VENTENY had disbursed over IDR 1.2 trillion in growth funding to businesses and MSMEs in Indonesia. To support this growth, the company raised JPY 2.2 billion in low-cost funding from Japan, alongside additional funding from Singapore and Indonesian banks, further bolstering its financial services. VENTENY is now poised to scale operations across Indonesia, working closely with local governments to bridge funding gaps for MSMEs. In South Sumatra, VENTENY has partnered with the Department of Cooperatives and SMEs. This network expansion includes partnerships in East Java and Bali, aiming to foster regional development. VENTENY Employee Super App Recognized for Employee Welfare Innovations The VENTENY Employee Super App experienced a 60% year-on-year growth as of September 30, 2024, driven by a surge in corporate clients, including Pertamina, Sompo, Astro, and Waskita Precast. For its contributions to employee welfare, the app was awarded Best Platform Innovation for Employee Welfare at the CNBC Indonesia Awards. Damar Raditya, Group COO of VENTENY, highlighted the app’s ongoing success: “VENTENY remains committed to innovating in support of employee welfare and Indonesia’s economic growth. With strong support from local governments and associations, we envision our ecosystem serving employees, MSMEs, cooperatives, entrepreneurs, and other stakeholders across Indonesia.”

Investment & Market Trends, Property

Malaysia’s Property Sector Set for Growth in 2025

According to a recent report by UOB Kay Hian, Malaysia’s property sector is showing strong momentum as it heads into the final quarter of 2024, with significant year-over-year growth expected across many major developers. UOB Kay Hian has maintained an OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, signaling its optimism about long-term opportunities. The report highlights developers like Mah Sing and Eco World as standout performers, especially as they strategically expand into data center projects and industrial property segments. Below are key insights and projections from UOB Kay Hian’s latest analysis. Strong Year-over-Year Growth Expected in 3Q24 UOB Kay Hian projects substantial YoY growth for the third quarter of 2024 across many developers within its coverage. Companies such as Mah Sing are expected to report 20-30% YoY growth, attributed to increased sales volumes and progressive billings from ongoing projects. This growth trajectory follows significant land sales and a series of well-received project launches earlier in the year, marking a positive trend for property developers as they wrap up 2024.  Sales and Project Launches Fuel Sector Expansion Developers are on track to meet their 2024 sales targets, having achieved around 50% of their goals by mid-year. UOB Kay Hian’s analysis suggests that 3Q24 sales figures will reflect strong performance, with major launches by developers contributing to robust demand. Notably, Mah Sing introduced five new M-series projects in August, and other key launches have met with similar market enthusiasm. These project launches indicate a sustained appetite for residential and mixed-use developments across Malaysia’s key markets. OVERWEIGHT Rating and Positive Long-Term Outlook UOB Kay Hian has reaffirmed its OVERWEIGHT stance on Malaysia’s property sector, reflecting confidence in a sustained uptrend that is expected to continue into 2025. The sector is benefiting from several supportive factors, including record-high levels of investment in Malaysia over recent years, rising land values, and growing demand for industrial properties. The report identifies several drivers behind this long-term growth outlook. Industrial developments are expanding, creating opportunities for developers to diversify beyond residential real estate. Additionally, rising land values are being buoyed by demand for data centers, the establishment of special economic zones, and major infrastructure projects that enhance Malaysia’s investment landscape. This combination of factors is creating a favorable environment for developers with diversified portfolios, particularly those with exposure to industrial and data center properties. Revenue and Earnings Growth Projections for 2025 Looking ahead to 2025, UOB Kay Hian expects Malaysia’s property sector to sustain double-digit revenue growth, projecting an increase of 11%, driven by continued sales growth and further billings from ongoing projects. The firm’s projections also include strong sector earnings growth, outpacing revenue increases due to high-margin land sales and a shift toward industrial property. Mah Sing, in particular, is expected to make a significant contribution to sector earnings, with a projected addition of at least RM120 million, largely from data center land sales. This focus on data center projects is enabling developers to tap into the growing digital infrastructure market, which has been driven by increased demand for data storage and processing capabilities. Policy Implications and Market Sentiment While the sector’s prospects remain largely positive, UOB Kay Hian points out that recent policy changes and economic conditions will shape market sentiment in the near term. The 2025 budget lacked significant new initiatives for homebuyers, with measures like the Home Ownership Campaign (HOC) and Madani Deposit Scheme notably absent. The budget did offer limited tax relief for first-time homebuyers, but this relief falls short of previous campaigns in terms of scale and potential impact. Despite these policy limitations, the industrial property segment is gaining momentum. Major corporations like Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK) and Sime Darby Plantation are shifting their focus to industrial property, in some cases repurposing agricultural land for industrial development. Increased foreign direct investment is also strengthening the industrial property segment, particularly as Malaysia enhances its appeal as a hub for green industrial projects in the ASEAN region. A Promising Outlook for 2025 UOB Kay Hian’s outlook on Malaysia’s property sector remains optimistic as developers are positioned to capitalize on both residential and industrial demand. The sector’s evolution reflects broader economic trends, including the rising importance of digital infrastructure, international investment, and the strategic growth of industrial zones. Developers with significant land reserves and diversified portfolios, such as Mah Sing and Eco World, are expected to continue performing strongly as Malaysia’s property sector transitions to a more balanced, growth-oriented landscape. This positive outlook is further supported by strategic urban planning initiatives and ongoing discussions about infrastructure projects like the Johor Autonomous Rapid Transit and potential incentives for the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, which are expected to enhance the sector’s growth prospects. With these drivers in place, Malaysia’s property sector appears poised for continued growth and transformation well into 2025.

Investment & Market Trends

DXN Charters Corporate Jet to Drive Global Expansion

CYBERJAYA: DXN Holdings Bhd. (“DXN” or the “Group”), a leading global manufacturer of nutraceutical products has announced the charter of a Gulfstream G550 corporate jet for 12 months to accelerate DXN’s global expansion efforts. The corporate jet is dedicated to supporting our key management team and high-performing members who have attained “Crown Ambassador” status, facilitating frequent travel across key cities in our overseas markets. This enables the leadership team to efficiently engage and motivate DXN’s 4.9 million active members worldwide as of September 2024 through in-person marketing events, including market activation meetings and member appreciation events, enhancing member motivation and driving sales growth. Additionally, the corporate jet provides greater oversight of DXN Group’s manufacturing facilities and operations worldwide, strengthening our capacity to drive growth across regions. DXN is a global company, with majority of its sales generated outside Malaysia. The Latin America market is the Group’s top-performing market and leads DXN’s growth, contributing 57.9% of DXN Group’s total sales of RM1,897.8 million in the FYE 29 February 2024 (“FYE 2024”). In FYE 2024, Latin America sales reached RM1,097.9 million, an impressive increase from RM589.8 million in FYE 2021. The Asian market is the Group’s second-largest market, contributing 25.8% of total gross sales in FYE 2024, with growth mainly contributed by robust sales in India.   The Group has 13 manufacturing facilities, of which 11 of them are located outside of Malaysia, with another 2 being constructed in Bangladesh and Nepal. These new facilities are expected to start operating by end-2024. Additional facilities are also planned for the future. DXN’s investment in manufacturing facilities across key markets is essential for managing supply chain and mitigating rising freight costs. Executive Chairman and Founder of DXN, Datuk Lim Siow Jin  said, “With our business expanding rapidly across multiple continents globally, this corporate jet charter will allow us to operate more effectively, focusing on what matters most, driving sales growth across our fast-growing international markets. Given the vast distances between key locations, the convenience and flexibility of the corporate jet will streamline travel, enhancing efficiency and time management compared to commercial flights.”   “The outlook for DXN in Latin America is highly promising as we prepare for expansion into Brazil. With strong, established markets in neighbouring Peru and Bolivia and a large base of active members, we are well-positioned to extend our business into Brazil. This new market, with a population of over 210 million, around five times larger than Peru and Bolivia combined offers significant growth potential for DXN. We have secured approval for eleven products in the Brazilian market to meet the growing demand for nutraceuticals, particularly among its expanding middle class.”   The corporate jet will enable the leadership team to efficiently engage and motivate members worldwide through in-person marketing events, such as market activation meetings and member appreciation events, which enhances member motivation, leading to better performance and higher sales.   The investment is considered well-justified, as DXN has achieved a 3-year revenue compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”) from FYE 2021 to FYE 2024 of 19.8%, with profit after tax and non-controlling interest (“net profit”) growing at a 3-year CAGR of 17.5%. In FYE 2024, the Group delivered a record high net profit of RM311.0 million on revenue of RM1,897.8 million.   “With our steady growth trajectory and the positive benefits arising from the jet charter, we are confident this investment will add value in terms of growth in sales and profitability well beyond the costs associated with it,” Datuk Lim concluded.

Investment & Market Trends

Global Investors Are Pricing in a Decisive Victory by Donald Trump

Current developments and key facts As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will determine how successfully and effectively the next president will be able to govern. So far, Republicans have won an extra seat in the Senate, but neither of the parties has a clear advantage in the battle for the House of Representatives. Overall, the counting of votes is still at a relatively early stage, and it could be hours or even days before a final outcome is known. The contest will come down to seven swing states, only three of which (North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania) have been most likely won by Trump so far. Still, judging by the latest market reaction, it appears reasonable to infer that global investors are pricing in a decisive victory by Donald Trump. Initial market impact and reactions As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, the global markets were positioned for Donald Trump’s victory. U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stock benchmark indices rallied sharply, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) higher. Given that, it is no wonder other major fiat currencies plunged, with EURUSD and GBPUSD down 1.82% and 1.32%, respectively, while bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $75,410, as per Coinbase. ‘Such a dramatic shift in market sentiment is explained by Trump’s official policies, or more precisely by the possible effect these policies are likely to have,’ says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. ‘Generally, it all boils down to Trump’s tax, immigration, and trade policies, which differ greatly from what Harris proposed. The market perceives them as inflationary, which is why we are seeing a bullish impact in the U.S. dollar.’ The United States controls the world’s primary reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, so only a few countries will not feel the effect of the latest U.S. presidential and congressional elections. Major currencies are already experiencing the initial impact. ‘Major currencies are falling predominantly because the U.S. dollar is rising, but there is also a fear that Trump’s policy on tariffs may hit their domestic economies,’ Kar said. Indeed, the primary reason for such a dramatic decline in EURUSD, for example, is that investors fear that Trump’s policies on immigration and taxes will spur inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy. This could widen the difference in interest rates between the U.S. and the Eurozone, making the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. Additionally, Trump has previously mentioned the possibility of imposing tariffs on European goods such as automobiles and chemicals, which adds to economic concerns. According to some analysts, Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on all U.S. imports may erode Europe’s GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260bn. A similar kind of impact may await the United Kingdom, where Trump’s blanket tariffs would hit billions of pounds of U.K. automotive, pharmaceutical, and liquor exports. It stands to logic that GBPUSD was down more than 1.3% today. For similar reasons, CNYUSD (Chinese renminbi / U.S. dollar spot rate) hit a 3-month high. ‘For the Chinese economy, the risks are even greater, as Trump promised to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. On top of that, under his administration, tensions are likely to grow over the CNYUSD exchange rate,’ comments Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker. Although the currency policy of the future Trump Administration is unclear, in his interview with Bloomberg, he had this to say: ‘We have a big currency problem because the depth of the currency now in terms of strong dollar / weak yen, weak yuan, is massive.’ Interestingly, the impact on the gold market has been relatively muted so far. As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, XAUUSD was down 1.2%, but historically, it is not a significant swing, especially given how much the U.S. dollar has strengthened. ‘Because Trump’s victory appears to be decisive, it lowers the probability of social tensions in the U.S., which is not a minor factor considering how fractious U.S. politics has become lately. Thus, XAUUSD is selling off, but I think there are bullish risks ahead as relations between China and the U.S. turn bitter,’ comments Kar Yong Ang. Analysts suggest that Donald Trump’s policies could escalate trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which may increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, his proposed large-scale tax cuts could potentially widen the U.S. fiscal deficit, prompting some strategic investors to move away from the U.S. dollar and into alternative assets like gold and bitcoin. Notably, BTCUSD reached a new all-time high following the news of Trump’s projected victory, as he is generally perceived to be more supportive of cryptocurrencies compared to Harris. In the short term, all the bullish dollar trades may temporarily reverse as traders buy the dips in EURUSD and GBPUSD in hope of a technical rebound. In the long term, however, the bearish pressure on these pairs will likely persist.

Scroll to Top

Subscribe
FREE Newsletter