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KUALA LUMPUR: Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) has appointed Datuk Abdul Rahman Ahmad as president and group chief executive starting from July 1, 2024. The government-linked investment company in a statement expressed its anticipation of Abdul Rahman’s return, emphasising his role in maintaining continuity and driving the execution of PNB’s recently developed Strategic Plan. Additionally, his appointment aims to further PNB’s mission of enhancing the financial well-being of Malaysians across generations. Abdul Rahman previously held the position of president and group chief executive of PNB from 2016 to 2019. Currently, he serves as the group CEO of CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, a role he has held since 2020. The announcement confirms The Edge Malaysia Weekly report about Abdul Rahman’s return to PNB, which manages approximately RM300 billion in assets, after being convinced by chairman Raja Tan Sri Arshad Raja Tun Uda. Abdul Rahman and Raja Arshad collaborated in 2009 to found and lead the state-controlled private equity firm Ekuiti Nasional Bhd.

KUALA LUMPUR: Crude oil prices may surge towards or surpass the $100 per barrel mark should tensions escalate further in the Middle East and cause disruption to Iran’s oil production. United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB), in a commodities strategy report released on Monday, said the significant uncertainty surrounding crude oil price trends after Iran’s drone and missile assault on Israel. Although Brent, the worldwide standard for crude oil, commenced Monday morning in Asia with minimal change, hovering slightly above $90 per barrel, the situation remains precarious. The research firm said widespread diplomatic efforts from the United States (US), European Union (EU) and Arab states to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran have helped contain the fallout. However, the firm said significant risk remains due to the uncertain reaction from both countries. UOB highlighted that present indicators in the energy market, such as net non-commercial crude oil positions, three-month implied volatility, and freight rates, indicate a relatively limited risk compared to previous disruptions. This is evidenced by the fact that Brent crude oil futures’ backwardation remains significantly distant from the levels observed in early 2022 during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The research firm stressed the importance of the response of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), highlighting it as a crucial factor to monitor. This is particularly significant as Iran contributes approximately four million barrels per day of crude oil production, accounting for 45 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s output. UOB added that if the situation deteriorates and poses a risk to Iran’s crude oil output, crude oil prices are likely to surge again towards the $100 per barrel mark. However, UOB also acknowledged that some OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, have adhered closely to production quotas, leaving room for potential production increases in the second half of the year to stabilise energy prices. UOB maintains its forecast for Brent crude to reach US$90 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2024 but acknowledges the volatility of the situation, especially considering the possibility of increased oil production from Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ in response to market dynamics.

KUALA LUMPUR: The combined fortunes of the richest featured in the 2024 Forbes Malaysia Rich List saw a modest uptick of 2 per cent, reaching a total of US$83.4 billion (RM398.8 billion), as reported by Forbes Asia. Leading the list once again is Robert Kuok, one of the world’s most seasoned billionaires, maintaining his top position with a net worth of US$11.5 billion. Kuok laid the foundation of the Kuok Group 75 years ago in Johor Bahru. Initially engaged in humble trades of sugar, rice, and wheat flour, Kuok eventually moulded it into a flourishing conglomerate. Following closely is Quek Leng Chan, the executive chairman of Hong Leong Group (Malaysia), retaining his second spot with a net worth of US$8.8 billion, despite a slight dip from US$10.2 billion recorded last year. Forbes Asia also reported that the top five rankings experienced some shifts. The Teh siblings, who inherited a share in Public Bank Bhd from their late father, Teh Hong Piow, saw a slight uptick in their wealth, climbing to third position with a net worth of $5.4 billion. This advancement displaced aluminium tycoons Koon Poh Keong and siblings, who slid to fifth place due to decreased prices and demand for the metal, leading to a drop in their net worth to US$5.3 billion from US$5.8 billion last year. In the meantime, notable increases in property values propelled brothers Lee Yeow Chor and Yeow Seng into the top five rankings for the first time. They secured the fourth position with a combined wealth of US$5.35 billion, marking an increase from US$4.6 billion last year. Yeow Chor manages the family’s palm oil enterprise, IOI Corp Bhd, while Yeow Seng oversees IOI Properties Bhd, which is preparing to unveil a multibillion-dollar office complex in Singapore’s central business district. Forbes Asia also reported that one of the standout success stories on this year’s roster is Tan Sri Francis Yeoh and his siblings, who witnessed the most remarkable surge in both monetary value and percentage gains. Their combined wealth skyrocketed to US$4.7 billion, more than tripling from the previous year, catapulting them seven positions up to seventh place. This surge in wealth can be credited to the achievements of their flagship enterprise, YTL Corporation Bhd. This enterprise has partnered with US technology giant Nvidia to establish artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure at its data centre park in Johor. The latest edition of the list introduced four fresh faces, among them two sets of inheritors—the Chen family, positioned 18th with a wealth of US$1.1 billion, inherits the estate of casino tycoon Dr Chen Lip Keong, who passed away in December. Likewise, the Gnanalingam family, ranked twelfth with a wealth of US$1.6 billion, consists of heirs of the late ports tycoon Tan Sri G Gnanalingam, who passed away in July last year. According to Forbes Asia, the minimum net worth to qualify for the list was US$320 million, up from US$315 million in 2023. The top 10 wealthiest individuals in Malaysia are Robert Kuok with US$11.5 billion, Quek Leng Chan with US$8.8 billion, the Teh siblings with US$5.4 billion, Lee Yeow Chor and Yeow Seng with US$5.35 billion, Koon Poh Keong and siblings with US$5.3 billion, Ananda Krishnan with US$4.8 billion, Tan Sri Francis Yeoh and siblings with US$4.7 billion, Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah with US$2.4 billion, Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay with US$2.2 billion, and Chia Song Kun with US$1.8 billion.

KUALA LUMPUR: There could be a significant impact on the Asia Pacific and global economies, primarily rising oil prices, if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate following the recent developments. In a commentary note, Moody’s Analytics highlighted the need to resolve the situation quickly to mitigate these effects. The research firm said before Iran attacked Israel last Friday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices ranged between US$85 (RM406.04) and US$90 (RM429.89) per barrel. Within this range, an estimated US$5 (RM23.88) represented a risk premium in anticipation of the attack. Following the attack, analysts anticipate an additional US$5 (RM23.88) per barrel to be added to the risk premium, thereby pushing the price of oil into the range of US$90 (RM429.89) to US$95 (RM453.77) per barrel. According to Moody’s Analytics, the current situation has two potential outcomes. The more probable scenario involves Israel’s restrained response to de-escalating tensions, influenced by pressure from the Biden administration and the global community. In this case, the risk premium of US$10 (RM47.76) per barrel is expected to diminish over the coming weeks. However, the second scenario, which could be far more detrimental, entails an escalation of the conflict with a forceful Israeli response to the attack. This could drive oil prices above US$100 (RM477.68) per barrel, threatening the fragile progress on inflation in the region. Moody’s Analytics highlights three main challenges resulting from higher oil prices. First, increased energy and fuel costs could elevate inflation, impacting production and transportation expenses and consequently affecting the prices of various goods. Second, higher oil prices may elevate inflation expectations, complicating the task for central banks and potentially delaying rate cuts or even prompting rate hikes. Lastly, the timing of higher oil prices is particularly unfavourable for Asia Pacific economies, as some countries are already grappling with stalled disinflation. Moreover, the research house notes that even the region’s net oil exporters may not benefit, as any revenue gains could be offset by weaker global demand resulting from resurgent inflation, leading to economic challenges for countries like Malaysia and Brunei.

Anything concerning the US Federal Reserve is currently the rage. As it stands, there will be rate cuts this year, and the timing of the first cut is currently the focus of the public’s attention. Shifts in these expectations have caused the US Dollar to move either way, and this has had knock-on effects on ringgit movements. For example, the ringgit saw gains after the dollar fell in early March due to weaker services purchasing managers index (PMI), which accelerated cut expectations. Then, the ringgit weakened anew after the dollar turned higher in reaction to stubbornly high United States (US) inflation, reducing rate cut expectations. The US economic trajectory remains key, but other factors can intervene to shift the Fed’s focus. I only have eyes on inflation In its recent decision, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its policy rate steady, maintaining a range of 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent. The committee judged it would be appropriate to cut the rate with greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 per cent. It underlined its commitment to returning inflation to the 2 per cent objective and remains highly attentive to inflation risks. During the press conference, Fed chair Powell stated that inflation is still too high and that the progress in bringing it down is not assured. He added that the committee is prepared to maintain the current target range longer if appropriate. Shelter costs are currently driving inflation, excluding this, consumer price index (CPI) was only up 1.8 per cent over the year. While rents are expected to decline, it may not be fast enough. Perhaps an eye on growth Chair Powell also said a policy response would be warranted should the labour market unexpectedly weaken. The unemployment rate remains near decade lows, and personal incomes continue to improve, rising 1.0 per cent in January from an average of 0.3 per cent. US fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was recently revised by 0.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent, driven by consumer spending and fixed investments. Forecasters are not expecting a significant improvement in growth dynamics, but more crucially, they are not expecting a large drop in activity either. Equity markets continue to trade at record highs, and bond yields are largely rangebound. It seems like the US economy will have to slow down more significantly for downside pressure on inflation to truly exert itself. An eye for an eye Beyond the US economy, a significant jump in geopolitical violence can also shift Fed expectations. This, however, looks unlikely given that the most significant market reaction to geopolitical tensions occurred in 2013 when Russia invaded Crimea. Since then, geopolitical conflicts have flown under the market’s radar as major nations pull away from actively participating in direct military action. Conflicts in Africa, domestic troubles in South America, the war in Yemen, North Korean missile firing, the Ukraine war and the war in Gaza have not caused much shift in policy expectations. China’s attack on Taiwan, however, has the potential to disrupt global trade and draw other nations into the conflict, necessitating a policy response. Others eye cutting rates Other central banks are also in the mix. European growth is anemic and is screaming for some rate cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) is, however, progressing cautiously, waiting for a sustainable move lower in inflation. The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate from 0 per cent to 0.1 per cent and ended its yield curve control. It, however, will continue to buy bonds at the same amount as before, essentially maintaining a very easy policy. Generally, all central banks, with the exception of Japan, have reached a rate plateau, and the next step is to lower them. The country cutting rates the fastest will likely see its currency decline faster than the rest. Again, the Fed sets the tone here given that the ECB moves like an overloaded cargo ship and the other central banks are relatively small in their influence over global markets. Cast your eyes elsewhere to find little there What of other nations’ fortunes? Of the economies out there, China looms large over Asia. A collapse there can increase the Dollar given its significantly negative repercussions to Asia and Oceania. In the past, the Fed has shown little reaction to country-specific economic development, but China’s oversized influence in Asia might warrant some action. Beyond China, there is little concern over significant economic disruptions in other major countries, which, therefore, is unlikely to influence the Fed over the intermediate term. Other concerns, such as a pandemic, domestic political crisis, financial crisis, or policy missteps, have had little influence on markets recently. Inflation in the bull’s eye We then arrive at the beginning, where the US economy will set the tone. The country’s growth dynamics remain, and inflation is relatively high. Considering the Fed’s focus on inflation, current projections of 3 rate cuts might be a little too much. The Fed can possibly push its rate cuts further out into 2024 or temper expectations of further rate cuts following the first move. These adjustments will underline dollar strength and keep the ringgit weak. This then might necessitate the local Central Bank to act. Profits in the eye of the beholder Bank Negara will be justified in raising rates should the persistently weak Ringgit fuels inflation. Based on initial impressions, this would have a negative effect on local equity markets. In other words, the rate hike can help cover the US yield gap and counter dollar pressure. This can also aid the ringgit’s gains against other major currencies and regional peers. Better ringgit expectations coupled with attractive domestic valuations can drive foreign flows into domestic equity and bond markets. Bond yields are likely kept anchored by strong domestic demand and from Bank Negara addressing inflation concerns. Domestic assets then look attractive either way. Despite what is happening over there, the knock-on effects look positive here. Julian Suresh Sundaram Independent Economist

KUALA LUMPUR: A Malaysian-produced research and development antiviral solution to combat dengue fever is ready for clinical trial, thanks to over a decade of scientific translational research partnership between Universiti Malaya’s Tropical Infectious Diseases Research and Education Centre (TIDREC) and a local bioscience company, Herbitec Sdn Bhd (HSB), an indirect subsidiary of Tanco Holdings Bhd. TIDREC and HSB are collaborating with Qualitas Medical Health Group to launch the first clinical trial for a breakthrough remedy in the fight against dengue. The trial aims to prevent severe dengue by translating laboratory discoveries into effective treatments. A successful clinical trial will boost the target of zero mortality from dengue by 2030, which is set by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) sustainable development goals. Universiti Malaya deputy vice-chancellor (research and innovation) Professor Ir Dr Kaharudin Dimyati said the partnership between TIDREC, HSB and Qualitas exemplifies the power of collaboration in driving meaningful progress in scientific research and healthcare innovation. “Together, we have pooled our expertise, resources, and collective determination to address this pressing public health challenge. “As we embark on this historic clinical trial, I want to reaffirm our unwavering commitment to excellence in research, patient care, and community health. The highest scientific rigour, ethical integrity, and patient-centred care standards will guide our collective efforts. “Through meticulous observation, analysis, and collaboration, we will strive to generate robust evidence to inform clinical practice and policy decisions in the fight against dengue,” he said in a statement. Dengue fever is an increasing danger to health worldwide, and Malaysia is now joining the fight against this debilitating and potentially fatal viral disease. From 2000 to 2019, WHO documented a ten-fold surge in reported cases worldwide, from 500,000 to 5.2 million. TIDREC executive director Professor Sazaly Abu Bakar thanked HSB and Qualitas for their pivotal roles in support of this initiative. “HSB’s supply of Noden, an innovative product for dengue treatment, and Qualitas hosting the clinical trials in their dedicated clinics exemplify the mutually beneficial collaboration between academia and the private sector. “This partnership would serve as an example of how laboratory research findings could impact the real problems faced by the community,” he said.