Singapore is poised to see sustained housing demand in the coming years, propelled by a confluence of demographic shifts, lifestyle changes, and population growth. According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and Housing and Development Board (HDB), these trends underpin the Draft Master Plan 2025, unveiled last month, which outlines the development of at least 80,000 new public and private homes over the next 10 to 15 years. In response to media queries, URA and HDB emphasised that housing strategies are shaped by multiple considerations, including managing near-term demand, ensuring a stable property market through consistent supply, and responding to long-term demographic and lifestyle trends. “We remain focused on ensuring that housing remains accessible in the long term for current and future generations,” the agencies stated. “We also account for a range of possible future scenarios, including socioeconomic changes and shifts in the global environment.” Demographic patterns are evolving significantly. Rising life expectancy is resulting in homes being occupied for longer periods, while an increasing number of young couples and single individuals are choosing to live independently rather than with extended families. This has led to a marked decline in household sizes, from 3.96 persons in 1995 to 3.09 in 2024. Additionally, the maturing cohort of “echo boomers” — individuals born in the late 1980s to 1990s — is reaching the age of home ownership, further fuelling demand. The government intends to phase in the new housing projects gradually and monitor market conditions closely to adjust supply as necessary. Population Growth Drives Demand Despite a declining birth rate, experts affirm that housing demand remains high due to broader demographic changes. A notable trend is the shift towards smaller and single-person households, reflecting changing social norms and preferences. Singapore’s total population reached 6.04 million in June 2024, representing a 2 per cent increase from the previous year. This marks the first time the population has exceeded six million, largely driven by a 5 per cent rise in the non-resident population. While much of this growth stems from foreign workers and expatriates, it contributes to increased demand for both owner-occupied and rental housing. Dr Woo Jun Jie, Senior Lecturer at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, noted that Singapore’s housing strategy must adapt to accommodate a larger foreign workforce, necessary to offset the impact of declining fertility and an ageing population. Associate Professor of Economics Walter Theseira from the Singapore University of Social Sciences remarked that while the government has refrained from setting a formal population target since the controversial 2013 Population White Paper, the implications are clear. “Without immigration, the Singapore resident population and workforce will inevitably decline,” he said. He added that the government’s housing plans suggest preparations for continued inflows of both permanent and temporary migrants. Although the 2013 White Paper projected a population of between 6.5 million and 6.9 million by 2030, the government has since clarified that this figure was intended as a planning parameter, not a definitive goal. Strategic Locations for Future Housing New housing precincts under the Draft Master Plan 2025 are planned in areas including Newton, Paterson, Dover-Medway along Dover Road, the former Singapore Racecourse site in Kranji, and the Paya Lebar Air Base and Sembawang Shipyard. The type of housing in each area is determined by factors such as land value, permissible density, and land availability. For instance, high-value districts like Newton and Paterson are earmarked for private developments, reflecting both development costs and market demand for premium residences. Conversely, locations such as Dover-Medway, situated near the Greater One-North commercial and academic cluster, are expected to feature a mix of public and private housing to support a diverse residential base. Public housing projects, explained Assoc Prof Theseira, are typically large-scale and high-density to support necessary infrastructure investments, such as transport links, healthcare facilities, and retail centres. These projects are usually sited on land with relatively lower value to ensure affordability after subsidies. Private housing, on the other hand, tends to be allocated to areas where the development of public housing would not be viable due to cost or density constraints. Beyond residential considerations, the new housing areas are also integrated into broader urban strategies. Professor Qian Wenlan from the National University of Singapore’s business school highlighted that the government’s decentralisation efforts aim to create employment hubs outside the central business district, thereby reducing commuting needs and enhancing liveability. For example, Bishan town centre is set to be transformed into a mixed-use business district featuring 200,000 square metres of new office space, along with an integrated hawker centre, polyclinic, transport interchange, and retail facilities. Developments in neighbourhoods such as Newton and Paterson are expected to include a blend of residential, retail and dining options, maximising land-use efficiency through vertical integration. Even as new homes are added in less dense zones such as Kranji and Sembawang, denser areas like Bishan will see moderate increases in residential capacity through redevelopment and Build-to-Order (BTO) projects. However, Dr Woo noted that greater density does not necessarily equate to congestion. Thoughtful urban design, including green spaces and recreational amenities, will be crucial in maintaining a high quality of life and mitigating perceptions of overcrowding. -CNA
