Chinese independent refiners, often called “teapots,” are expected to switch from Venezuelan crude to heavy oil from other sources, including Iran, in the coming months, according to traders and analysts. The shift comes after Venezuelan shipments to China slowed following the US capture of President Nicolas Maduro and a new US-Venezuela agreement to export crude to the United States.
Analysts say the reduction in Venezuelan supply will affect teapots that rely on discounted heavy barrels, but ample supplies from Russia and Iran mean refiners can maintain operations without paying higher prices. In 2025, China imported around 389,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, about 4% of its total seaborne imports.
Venezuelan crude already en route to Asia is enough to cover roughly 75 days of Chinese demand, providing some short-term buffer. Traders expect teapots to begin switching to Russian and Iranian crude in March and April, with additional alternatives available from Canada, Brazil, Iraq, and Colombia. Iranian Heavy crude, priced about US$10 below ICE Brent, is seen as the cheapest option.
Other potential replacements include Middle Eastern grades such as Iraqi Basrah, while Canadian crude discounts have widened recently due to lower expected demand from China.
