China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are projected to decline in 2025 for the first time in three years, according to revised outlooks from five independent research firms. The anticipated fall reflects subdued industrial activity and a strong supply of domestically produced and piped natural gas.
The world’s largest LNG importer is now expected to reduce its purchases by between 6 per cent and 11 per cent from the 76.65 million metric tonnes imported in 2024. The downward revision marks a notable shift from earlier forecasts, which had anticipated a record year driven by Beijing’s economic stimulus measures. However, analysts now cite softer demand and increasing economic headwinds.
Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei pointed to the compounding effects of US tariffs, which have weighed heavily on China’s export sector. “China’s consumer price index has also recorded year-on-year declines for several consecutive months, reflecting weak consumer confidence,” said Xiong.
The contraction in demand has been exacerbated by a milder-than-expected winter and reduced industrial activity. Analysts at Rystad, Kpler and ICIS noted that Chinese consumers are increasingly turning to more cost-effective alternatives such as domestically produced gas and pipeline imports, diminishing the need for LNG shipments.
This would mark only the second contraction in Chinese LNG imports since 2022, when pandemic-related restrictions significantly curtailed economic activity. According to Chinese customs data, LNG imports dropped to 20 million metric tonnes in the first four months of 2025, compared to nearly 29 million tonnes during the same period in 2024.
“Even with a sharp rebound in the second half, it would not be sufficient to offset the weakness seen so far,” remarked Yuanda Wang, senior analyst at ICIS.
Rystad estimates that natural gas consumption within the industrial and chemical sectors will fall by approximately 1 per cent this year. Typically, these sectors contribute an annual increase of 10 to 15 billion cubic metres in demand, according to Kpler analysts.
The softness in demand is already reflected in import data, with major suppliers registering notable declines. Imports from Australia, Malaysia and Russia all fell by more than 20 per cent year-on-year between January and April, according to Chinese customs data.
Australia, China’s leading LNG supplier in 2025, delivered 6.38 million tonnes in the first four months, a 24 per cent decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Kpler’s data indicates that the downturn was primarily seen in long-term contract volumes, while spot market purchases remained relatively stable.
This emerging trend signals a rare retreat in what has otherwise been a trajectory of steady growth for China’s LNG market, raising broader questions around Asia’s energy demand outlook and global price stability.
-Reuters
