Analysts view Heineken NV’s decision to relocate large-scale production to established regional breweries in Malaysia and Vietnam as a positive move for Heineken Malaysia Bhd, opening a potential new revenue stream through exports to Singapore and the wider Asia-Pacific region.
HLIB Research said the potential contribution from the new revenue would likely be meaningful for Heineken Malaysia, given that export sales currently account for less than 1% of its revenue.
Heineken NV announced that its subsidiary, Asia-Pacific Breweries Singapore (APBS), will gradually scale down production at its Tuas brewery, home to the Tiger Beer brand, shifting output to facilities in Malaysia and Vietnam.
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research said the additional export revenue could be significant, as Heineken Malaysia currently generates less than 1% of its sales from exports.
“We expect Heineken Malaysia to mainly supply on a business-to-business basis, with branding, marketing, and consumer-facing operations handled by APBS in Singapore,” HLIB noted. “The shift should improve plant utilisation and operating leverage, which may expand margins.”
HLIB also highlighted Malaysia’s geographic advantage, suggesting it will likely serve as the main supplier to Singapore over Vietnam. A brokerage analyst added that increased export exposure could diversify earnings and enhance the company’s valuation, reducing reliance on domestic regulatory policies.
TA Research said the move is expected to provide incremental earnings support over the medium term. Since the Singapore production transition will occur gradually through 2027, the revenue contribution will build over time.
Assuming Malaysia fulfills 60% of exports to Singapore, TA Research estimates a revenue boost of RM344.7 million in FY27 and RM360.4 million in FY28, translating into an expected net profit increase of 1.5% in FY27 and 6.2% in FY28.
Both HLIB and TA Research have maintained their “buy” ratings, with target prices of RM28.07 and RM25.80 per share, respectively, pending further clarity on export allocation and its financial impact.
This development positions Heineken Malaysia to benefit from improved export sales, higher operating efficiency, and a more diversified revenue mix.
